Page 68 - Steel Tech India eMagazine Volume October 2021
P. 68
92/ Ć 12 Ć 2FWREHU
XVH VWLOO VWDQGV DW D SRVLWLYH RYHUDOO VWHHO GHPDQG WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ VHFWRU LV H[SHFWHG WR FRQWLQXH WR
LV H[SHFWHG WR GHFOLQH E\ LQ JURZ DIWHU VKRZLQJ UHODWLYHO\ KLJK JURZWK SHUIRUPDQFH
1R JURZWK LQ VWHHO GHPDQG LV H[SHFWHG LQ ZLWK WKURXJKRXW WKH SDQGHPLF
WKH UHDO HVWDWH VHFWRU UHPDLQLQJ GHSUHVVHG LQ OLQH Italy, RQH RI WKH KDUGHVW KLW E\ WKH SDQGHPLF LQ WKH (8
ZLWK WKH JRYHUQPHQW SROLF\ VWDQFH RQ UHEDODQFLQJ DQG LV UHFRYHULQJ IDVWHU WKDQ RWKHU (8 FRXQWULHV ZLWK VWURQJ
HQYLURQPHQWDO SURWHFWLRQ 6RPH UHVWRFNLQJ DFWLYLWLHV UHFRYHU\ LQ FRQVWUXFWLRQ 6HYHUDO VWHHO XVLQJ VHFWRUV
PLJKW VXSSRUW DSSDUHQW VWHHO XVH 5HFHQW JRYHUQPHQW LQFOXGLQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQ DQG GRPHVWLF DSSOLDQFHV DUH
DFWLRQ WR SXVK IRU D WUDQVLWLRQ DZD\ IURP WKH UHDO HVWDWH H[SHFWHG WR UHFRYHU WR D SUH &29,' OHYHO LQ
GHSHQGHQW JURZWK PRGHO LV OLNHO\ WR FRQWLQXH ,Q developed Asia, WKH &29,' VLWXDWLRQ ZRUVHQHG LQ
Developed economies H[DFHUEDWHG E\ VORZHU YDFFLQDWLRQ SURJUHVV
0RUH WDUJHWHG DQG ORFDOLVHG ORFNGRZQV KHOSHG WR EXW VWHHO GHPDQG UHFRYHU\ ZDV QRW LQWHUUXSWHG DQG
PLQLPLVH WKH LPSDFW RI WKH ODWHVW LQIHFWLRQ ZDYHV RQ WKH IRUHFDVW KDV EHHQ UHYLVHG XS KHOSHG E\ WKH VWURQJ
HFRQRPLF DFWLYLWLHV LQ +RZHYHU VXSSO\ FKDLQ UHERXQG LQ JOREDO WUDGH DQG JRYHUQPHQW LQIUDVWUXFWXUH
ERWWOHQHFNV DQG WKH VHUYLFHV VHFWRU VWLOO ODJJLQJ EHKLQG SURJUDPPHV
DUH SUHYHQWLQJ D PRUH UREXVW UHFRYHU\ ,Q Japan VWHHO GHPDQG LV UHFRYHULQJ JUDGXDOO\ ZLWK
$ UHGXFWLRQ LQ VXSSO\ FKDLQ ERWWOHQHFNV FRQWLQXHG LQFUHDVLQJ H[SRUWV LQYHVWPHQW DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ
SHQW XS GHPDQG DQG ULVLQJ EXVLQHVV DQG FRQVXPHU 0DQXIDFWXULQJ HVSHFLDOO\ DXWRPRWLYH DQG PDFKLQHU\
FRQILGHQFH ZLOO VWUHQJWKHQ WKH UHFRYHU\ PRPHQWXP LQ LV OHDGLQJ WKH UHFRYHU\ &LYLO FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRQWLQXHV
WR XQGHUSLQ VWHHO GHPDQG ZKLOH SULYDWH FRQVWUXFWLRQ
UHPDLQV VXEGXHG ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI ZDUHKRXVHV DQG
$IWHU IDOOLQJ E\ LQ VWHHO GHPDQG ZLOO
GLVWULEXWLRQ FHQWUHV ,Q UHFRYHULHV LQ FRQVXPSWLRQ
LQFUHDVH E\ LQ DQG LQ UHDFKLQJ
DQG LQYHVWPHQW DUH H[SHFWHG WR VXSSRUW SRVLWLYH JURZWK
LWV SUH SDQGHPLF OHYHO
LQ DOO VWHHO XVLQJ VHFWRUV
,Q WKH 86 WKH HFRQRP\ FRQWLQXHV LWV UREXVW UHFRYHU\
South Korea LV H[SHFWHG WR VHH LWV VWHHO GHPDQG
GULYHQ E\ SHQW XS GHPDQG DQG D YLJRURXV SROLF\
UHFRYHULQJ WR WKH OHYHO LQ VXSSRUWHG E\
UHVSRQVH 7KH OHYHO RI UHDO *'3 H[FHHGHG LWV SUHYLRXV
LPSURYLQJ H[SRUWV DQG LQYHVWPHQW LQ PDQXIDFWXULQJ
KLJK LQ WKH VHFRQG TXDUWHU RI WKLV \HDU
IDFLOLWLHV 7KH FRQVWUXFWLRQ VHFWRU ZLOO EH VXSSRUWHG E\
6WHHO GHPDQG ZDV DLGHG E\ WKH VWURQJ SHUIRUPDQFH RI
SXEOLF FLYLO HQJLQHHULQJ SURJUDPPHV DQG UHVLGHQWLDO
WKH DXWRPRWLYH DQG GXUDEOH JRRGV VHFWRUV EXW VKRUWDJH
FRQVWUXFWLRQ UHFRYHU\ VZLWFKLQJ WR SRVLWLYH JURZWK LQ
RI VRPH FRPSRQHQWV LV XQGHUPLQLQJ WKLV UHFRYHU\ 7KH
6RXWK .RUHD VDZ D MXPS LQ QHZ VKLSSLQJ
PRPHQWXP LQ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ VHFWRU LV ZHDNHQLQJ
RUGHUV LQ ZKLFK ZLOO ERRVW .RUHD¶V VWHHO GHPDQG
ZLWK WKH HQG RI D UHVLGHQWLDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ ERRP DQG
IRU WKH FRPLQJ \HDUV
VOXJJLVK QRQ UHVLGHQWLDO VHFWRU DFWLYLWLHV 7KH UHFRYHU\
Developing economies excluding China
LQ RLO SULFHV LV VXSSRUWLQJ D UHFRYHU\ LQ HQHUJ\ VHFWRU
LQYHVWPHQW 6WHHO GHPDQG LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJ HFRQRPLHV H[FOXGLQJ
&KLQD FRQWLQXHG WR UHFRYHU LQ DLGHG E\ WKH
7KHUH FRXOG EH PRUH XSVLGH SRWHQWLDO LI 3UHVLGHQW
UHFRYHU\ LQ FRPPRGLW\ SULFHV DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH
%LGHQ¶V LQIUDVWUXFWXUH VWLPXOXV SURJUDPPH LV HQDFWHG
+RZHYHU QHZ &29,' ZDYHV FRPELQHG ZLWK ORZ
EXW WKLV ZRXOG QRW IHHG WKURXJK XQWLO ODWH
YDFFLQDWLRQ OHYHOV DQG D VORZ UHFRYHU\ LQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO
,Q WKH (8 WKH UHFRYHU\ LQ VWHHO GHPDQG WKDW VWDUWHG LQ
WRXULVP UHVWUDLQHG GHYHORSLQJ HFRQRPLHV ,Q DV
WKH VHFRQG KDOI RI LV JDWKHULQJ SDFH ZLWK DOO VWHHO
YDFFLQDWLRQV SURJUHVV FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJ
XVLQJ VHFWRUV H[KLELWLQJ D SRVLWLYH UHFRYHU\ GHVSLWH
HFRQRPLHV DUH H[SHFWHG WR LPSURYH EXW WKH SDQGHPLF
FRQWLQXLQJ ZDYHV RI LQIHFWLRQ
ZLOO OHDYH D ODVWLQJ LPSDFW RQ WKHVH HFRQRPLHV WKURXJK
Germany’s VWHHO GHPDQG UHFRYHU\ LV VXSSRUWHG ZHDNHQHG ILQDQFLDO SRVLWLRQV DQG DFFXPXODWHG
E\ H[SRUWV ZKLFK XQGHUOLH LWV VWURQJ PDQXIDFWXULQJ VWUXFWXUDO FKDOOHQJHV
SHUIRUPDQFH +RZHYHU VXSSO\ ERWWOHQHFNV SDUWLFXODUO\
:KLOH RQ WUDFN WR D KHDOWK\ UHFRYHU\ IURP WKH VWULFW
LQ WKH DXWRPRWLYH VHFWRU DUH FDXVLQJ D ORVV RI
ORFNGRZQ LQ ,QGLD¶V HFRQRP\ JRW DQRWKHU VKRFN
PRPHQWXP 6WHHO GHPDQG LQ ZLOO EHQHILW IURP D
IURP D PRUH VHYHUH VHFRQG ZDYH LQ $SULO -XQH
KLJK RUGHU EDFNORJ LQ WKH PDQXIDFWXULQJ VHFWRU ZKLOH
STEEL TECH